| June 11, 2007 Edition |
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How to Restore America's Place in the WorldNewsweekFareed Zakaria In the fall of 1982, I arrived in the United States as an 18-year-old student from India. The country was in rough shape. That December unemployment hit 10.8 percent, higher than at any point since World War II. Interest rates hovered around 15 percent. Abroad, the United States was still reeling from Vietnam and Watergate. The Soviet Union was on a roll, expanding its influence from Afghanistan to Angola to Central America. That June, Israel invaded Lebanon, making a tense situation in the Middle East even more volatile. Yet America was a strikingly open and expansive country. Reagan embodied it. Despite record-low approval ratings, he exuded optimism from the center of the storm. In the face of Moscow's rising power he confidently spoke of a mortal crisis in the Soviet system and predicted that it would end up on "the ash heap of history." Across the political aisle stood Thomas (Tip) O'Neill, the hearty Irish-American Speaker of the House, who personified the enormous generosity and tolerance of old-school liberalism. To a young foreign student the country seemed welcoming and full of promise. Today, by almost all objective measures, the United States sits on top of the world. But the atmosphere in Washington could not be more different from 1982. We have become a nation consumed by fear, worried about terrorists and rogue nations, Muslims and Mexicans, foreign companies and free trade, immigrants and international organizations. The strongest nation in the history of the world, we see ourselves besieged and overwhelmed. While the Bush administration has contributed mightily to this state of affairs, at this point it has reversed itself on many of its most egregious policies-from global warming to North Korea to Iraq. Full Story |
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| QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
| Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out. Anton Chekhov |
| PROFESSIONAL ARTICLES, EDITORIALS AND OPINIONS |
Echoes of the FutureWhat the criminal complaint for the JFK terror plot suggests about shifting terrorist tactics.THE FACE OF TERROR is constantly evolving as terrorist tactics, and even the foot soldiers trying to attack America, change. When authorities announced last weekend that they had foiled a plot designed to blow up New York City's John F. Kennedy International Airport, its fuel tanks, and a jet fuel artery, the conspiracy, on the surface, seemed like more of the same. Although perhaps a bit more ambitious than the usual scheme, the JFK plot was consistent with past attempts in its targeting of a major economic artery and effort to attain maximum symbolic value. But a look at the details contained in the 33-page criminal complaint suggests a change in the modes of operation of America's enemies.ONE SIGNIFICANT ASPECT of the complaint is what it suggests about the threat of terrorist infiltration through our southern border. Within analytic circles there is a near consensus that America's northern border poses far more of a threat of terrorist infiltration than the southern border. This view is detailed at length in Richard Miniter's Disinformation, which explains that al Qaeda has had a long-term presence in Canada, and that attempted terrorist entry from the northern border will be aided by "a political climate far different from Mexico--one that actually defends accused terrorists." In contrast, Miniter writes that "there are no known cases of al Qaeda terrorists sneaking across the Mexican border." As Miniter notes, a 2004 report by Robert S. Leiken of the Nixon Center examining how 212 "suspected or convicted" terrorists entered the United States finds that of all their means of entry, "terrorists stealing across the Mexican border comes last, virtually nil." Full Story Misunderstanding the SurgeThe New York Times wrongly judges the plan and the commanders who are executing it.Weekly StandardFrederick W. Kagan YESTERDAY the New York Times published yet another article in an ongoing series that might be called "The Surge Has Failed." This one was titled "Commanders Say Push in Baghdad Is Short of Goal." The article reports on a one-page summary of a document the Times characterized only as an "internal military assessment." According to that document and interviews with some commanders, the paper argues that the Baghdad Security Plan is not meeting its goals in securing the population of Baghdad, largely because of sectarian bias within the Iraqi police. The article contains some important distortions. The authors state, "American commanders have also had to send troops outside the capital, to deal with a sharp rise in violence in Diyala Province and to search for American soldiers kidnapped south of the capital." In fact, Generals Raymond Odierno and David Petraeus decided from the outset to deploy additional U.S. forces to the "belts" around Baghdad, both south and north, in order to interdict the lines of communication used by both Sunni and Shiia terrorists to send weapons and fighters into Baghdad. Violence had been rising in Diyala since mid-2006, and the U.S. command decided to address it early this year because instability there contributes directly to violence in Baghdad. The southern belts house car-bomb factories and terrorist safe-havens, which is why MNF-I decided to clear them before attempting to secure Baghdad. The decisions to flow additional forces into these areas slowed the pace of clear-and-hold operations in Baghdad, but these operations will go a long way toward ensuring that peace established in the capital will be stable and durable. The decision to flow forces into the belts was a sensible adaptation to the reality on the ground at the start of the new plan. The problematic New York Times article elides two very different military plans into one. General George Casey began developing a new plan to stem the rising tide of violence at the end of 2006. Casey's plan was based on the same presuppositions that had guided the U.S. war effort in Iraq since late 2003. President Bush announced a new strategy on January 10, 2007, and he changed the command team in order to implement it. In mid-February General David Petraeus replaced General Casey as the commander of U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. Since the change of command, Generals Petraeus and Odierno have made clear that they did not accept the rosy scenarios of security by summer that General Casey had been pushing. Full Story The Other WarAfghanistan is winnable, but victory can't be taken for granted.Weekly StandardMichael Fumento Our convoy pulls into Forward Operating Base Lagman at 1200 hours. After three embeds in Iraq, I'm finally visiting "the forgotten war," fought in a truly exotic land rich with history. In fact, I've just seen The Castle, an amazing fortress the locals claim Alexander the Great built. So what am I thinking? My butt hurts. It's been six straight hours in a Humvee along Highway One from Kandahar Airfield and the only exercise I've gotten is shifting in my seat. My escorts are from the Romanian 812th Infantry Battalion. It might have been easy to dislike them because I was exhausted from my flight the previous day and they made me get up at 0300 to grab that oh-so-uncomfortable seat. But of the 37 NATO countries providing 35,000 personnel in Afghanistan, Romania is one of only six (besides the U.S.) that actually allow their men to fight. They deserve gratitude. Zabul Province, our destination, is north and east of Kandahar, heading towards Kabul. It's an important Taliban gateway from Pakistan, one of five southern Pashtun provinces (out of 34 provinces total), meaning the Taliban have some measure of local support since they arose within that ethno-religious group. Days before I arrived, 16 Afghan National Army (ANA) ambush casualties arrived at FOB Lagman, overwhelming the small aid station and turning infantry and engineers into medics. (All survived.) The now-cocky Taliban then tried to repeat the trick, but this time U.S. airpower hammered them, killing at least 35. ("Taliban," incidentally, is the generic term for the enemy, used now to describe not only that group but also al Qaeda and other terrorists; the military-approved jargon is Anti-Government Elements or AGE.) Lagman operates under the auspices of a Provisional Reconstruction Team (PRT) run by the U.S. Air Force. As the name indicates, the team handles civil-affairs projects in Zabul. But the Romanian Army runs the military side. Romanian M.P.s police the nearby mud hut village of Qalat, which they tell me is fairly safe although they won't let me patrol with them there. Two weeks after I arrived the Afghan National Army would have a gun battle there, seizing what proved to be the headquarters of Mullah Dadullah, a butcher frequently called "the military mastermind of the Taliban insurgency." On May 13, Afghan and U.S. forces killed Dadullah in Helmand Province. Full Story |
| BREAKING NEWS FOR THE PROFESSIONAL |
Is Iran a Terror Threat in the U.S.?TimeRobert Baer In another week or so no one is going to remember the "JFK plot." It never got off the ground. The plotters had neither explosives nor financing to fulfill their plan to blow up fuel tanks and a fuel pipeline at the New York City airport. The plot was betrayed almost from the beginning. It will sink without a ripple - unless, that is, there proves to be an Iranian connection. So far evidence of any such link, first raised as a possibility in local Trinidad newspapers, is wafer thin. One of the suspects, Abdul Kadir, was on his way to Iran to attend an Islamic conference when he was arrested in Trinidad. A former Guyanese legislator, Kadir is a Shi'a Muslim, and two of his children are studying in Iran. Another suspect arrested is a Shi'a imam in Trinidad, who reportedly has ties to Shi'a groups in Iraq and Iran. At least one unnamed FBI official has dismissed any possible such ties, telling the blog Talking Points Memo that while the plotters "may have been looking for help... they were not associated with anyone else." On the other hand, it is not inconceivable Iran would be looking at terrorist targets in the United States these days. Iranian hard-liners believe a war with the United States is inevitable. They read the American press and have convinced themselves that while Condoleezza Rice might settle for diplomacy, Dick Cheney sooner or later will find an excuse to bomb them. The hard-liners are also convinced that we are inciting Iran's ethnic minorities to attack the regime. Trying to blow up JFK Airport is the least we could expect from them if Cheney does get his war. Full Story Defeat's Killing FieldsNew York TimesPeter W. Rodman and William Shawcross SOME opponents of the Iraq war are toying with the idea of American defeat. A number of them are simply predicting it, while others advocate measures that would make it more likely. Lending intellectual respectability to all this is an argument that takes a strange comfort from the outcome of the Vietnam War. The defeat of the American enterprise in Indochina, it is said, turned out not to be as bad as expected. The United States recovered, and no lasting price was paid. We beg to differ. Many years ago, the two of us clashed sharply over the wisdom and morality of American policy in Indochina, especially in Cambodia. One of us (Mr. Shawcross) published a book, "Sideshow," that bitterly criticized Nixon administration policy. The other (Mr. Rodman), a longtime associate of Henry Kissinger, issued a rebuttal in The American Spectator, defending American policy. Decades later, we have not changed our views. But we agreed even then that the outcome in Indochina was indeed disastrous, both in human and geopolitical terms, for the United States and the region. Today we agree equally strongly that the consequences of defeat in Iraq would be even more serious and lasting. The 1975 Communist victory in Indochina led to horrors that engulfed the region. The victorious Khmer Rouge killed one to two million of their fellow Cambodians in a genocidal, ideological rampage. In Vietnam and Laos, cruel gulags and "re-education" camps enforced repression. Millions of people fled, mostly by boat, with thousands dying in the attempt. Full Story Splash, Splash, You're Dead: The Military's Next-Gen Water GunWiredDavid Hambling The next terrorist threat may come from the deep. In recent years, several homeland security alerts have focused on the danger of scuba-equipped terrorists targeting docked Navy vessels or ocean-side nuclear plants. Now the U.S. military is quietly developing a new generation of underwater weaponry capable of warding off undersea trespassers with liquid bullets. It's a revival of an underwater arms race that was hot during the Cold War, when Western scientists sometimes struggled to match Russian technology. The Soviet threat was estimated to include some three thousand Special Forces frogmen -- an opponent virtually impervious to traditional arms. Normal guns will work underwater, but the drag slows bullets right down. "I have tried it myself in our pool," says Scott Greenbaum, a Certified Glock Armourer and webmaster at GlockFAQ.com. "The bullets only traveled about 15 feet." Full Story Why Iraq Isn't KoreaTimeBill Powell In the early days of the Iraq war, the analogy of choice for the Bush Administration was the post-World War II occupations of Japan and Germany. They had been bitter enemies of the United States; were both destroyed in a merciless world war; and eventually turned into peaceful, democratic allies of the first order. Anyone who said democracy couldn't come at the barrel of a gun was denying the obvious. That talking point lasted until about the fall of 2003, a few months after the invasion, when it began to become clear - at least to those of us who were there reporting at the time - that a deadly insurgency was building, and that the United States was frittering away, mainly through ineptitude and a lack of manpower, whatever goodwill was there in the wake of Saddam Hussein's fall. (And there was a reservoir of goodwill at the beginning, even among the Sunni community in Baghdad, in the summer right after the invasion.) As it became clear that victory was nowhere near, the reflexive, default position for critics everywhere was that Iraq had become Vietnam. As the insurgency intensified, and the incompetence of the occupation became dismayingly clear to all those paying attention, the Vietnam analogy (despite its flaws) took hold in the public mind and hasn't let go. Full Story Being Careful of Your Friends in IraqTimeBobby Ghosh Once again, the U.S. military says it is looking for an accommodation with elements of the Iraqi insurgency - a halt in combat, followed by a treaty. Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the No. 2 military commander in Iraq, believes that up to 80% of insurgents would be open to such a deal, thereby isolating extremists such as al-Qaeda. "We are talking about cease-fires, and maybe signing some things that say they won't conduct operations against the government of Iraq or against coalition forces," Odierno said. "We believe a large majority of groups within Iraq are reconcilable and are now interested in engaging with us. But more importantly, they want to engage and become a part of the government of Iraq." The general will have been heartened by Thursday's pitched battles between Sunni insurgent groups and al-Qaeda in Baghdad's volatile Amiriyah neighborhood. Eyewitnesses say fighters from the two largest insurgent organizations, the Islamic Army and the Brigade of the 1920 Revolution, joined forces at the behest of Amiriyah residents to fight al-Qaeda extremists who have been imposing their twisted version of Islamic law on the neighborhood. Some residents also called in the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces. Even if it wasn't planned that way, at the height of the battle these disparate forces briefly united against a common enemy. And the Iraqi government is portraying the incident as a Sunni revolt against al-Qaeda. That's only partly true. There's no doubt many Sunnis are tiring of al-Qaeda's brutal tactics that target Iraqi civilians and all who oppose them. But it's a huge leap to suggest that the insurgents who oppose al-Qaeda are willing to make peace with U.S. and Iraqi forces. A number of attempts to negotiate such a pact in the past have failed, for several reasons. Full Story |
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Message for Mr. PutinWashington PostIN THE PAST few days, the anti-Western rhetoric of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which had been rising in pitch for several months, has reached Soviet levels of shrillness. He accused the United States of "imperialism" and "diktat" and threatened to target Europe with new Russian weapons. In an interview with foreign journalists, he cynically mocked Western democracy, saying that U.S. "torture, homelessness, [and] Guantanamo" and Europe's "harsh treatment of demonstrators" have left him as the only "absolute and pure democrat" in the world. If the Cold War were still on, Western leaders would probably find it relatively easy to rebuff such barbs at today's summit of industrialized democracies in northern Germany. But this is a different era, and Mr. Putin himself will attend the summit, a member of a club -- the Group of Eight -- in which he clearly doesn't belong. His presence should remind the other seven members of how much has gone wrong in Moscow since they decided in 1998 to offer Russia membership in the hope that it was evolving into a liberal democracy. It should also give them the opportunity to make clear to Mr. Putin that his belligerence will not return his country to great-power status. Full Story Flight 93 Memorial Land in DisputeNew York PostDaniel Lovering A man who owns property at the site where Flight 93 crashed has demanded millions for his portion of land where a memorial is planned, and has installed a donation box to help pay for security. The actions by Mike Svonavec have angered victims' families, who believe he is overcharging and disagree with the need for a donation box. "That land has been paid for with 40 lives ... the donation box is an insult to that cost," said Patrick White, vice president for Families of Flight 93. Svonavec wants $10 million for his 273-acre property in Somerset County, far more than the per-acre amount paid for nearby land, White said Tuesday. He said Svonavec told him about his asking price last July, and that he has rejected three offers from the group - the latest for more than $500,000. "I think Svonavec believes his land, because it has the blood of my cousin and 39 other people, it's worth more," he said. Svonavec said he wants fair market value for the parcel and he would accept no money for the exact site where 40 passengers and crew members died when the hijacked United Airlines flight crashed on Sept. 11, 2001. He declined to comment on the $10 million figure. Full Story The Tortured Lives of InterrogatorsWashington PostLaura Blumenfeld The American interrogator was afraid. Of what and why, he couldn't say. He was riding the L train in Chicago, and his throat was closing. In Iraq, when Tony Lagouranis interrogated suspects, fear was his friend, his weapon. He saw it seep, dark and shameful, through the crotch of a man's pants as a dog closed in, barking. He smelled it in prisoners' sweat, a smoky odor, like a pot of lentils burning. He had touched fear, too, felt it in their fingers, their chilled skin trembling. But on this evening, Lagouranis was back in Illinois, taking the train to a bar. His girlfriend thought he was a hero. His best friend hung out with him, watching reruns of "Hawaii Five-O." And yet he felt afraid. "I tortured people," said Lagouranis, 37, who was a military intelligence specialist in Iraq from January 2004 until January 2005. "You have to twist your mind up so much to justify doing that." Being an interrogator, Lagouranis discovered, can be torture. At first, he was eager to try coercive techniques. In training at Fort Huachuca, Ariz., instructors stressed the Geneva Conventions, he recalled, while classmates privately admired Israeli and British methods. "The British were tough," Lagouranis said. "They seemed like real interrogators." But interrogators for countries that pride themselves on adhering to the rule of law, such as Britain, the United States and Israel, operate in a moral war zone. They are on the front lines in fighting terrorism, crucial for intelligence-gathering. Yet they use methods that conflict with their societies' values. The border between coercion and torture is often in dispute, and the U.S. government is debating it now. The Bush administration is nearing completion of a new executive order setting secret rules for CIA interrogation that may ban waterboarding, a practice that simulates drowning. Last September, President Bush endorsed an "alternative set of procedures," which he described as "tough," for questioning high-level detainees. And in Iraq last month, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander, warned troops that the military does not sanction "torture or other expedient methods to obtain information." Full Story New Defense Against Explosively Formed Projectiles (EFPs)?Defense ReviewDavid Crane It's been reported that IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) account for approx. 70% of all combat casualties in Iraq. Well, there's a specific type of IED coming out of Iran that's been wreaking havoc on Coalition troops recently, and against which MRAP (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected) vehicles like the Cougar, RG33, and Golan armored vehicles can't defend. It goes by a bunch of names, including Explosively Formed Penetrator or Explosively Formed Projectile (or "EFP" for short), Explosively-Forged Projectile, Explosively-Forged Penetrator, Self-Forging Warhead (SFW), and Self-Forging Fragment (SFF). Military defense tech blogs like Defense Tech (DefenseTech.org) and Noah Shachtman's new site, NoahShachtman.com, have done some good reporting on EFPs. EFPs are actually quite simple construction-wise, and nothing new. They're usually comprised of a cylindrical housing that contains a shaped explosive charge behind a concave metallic liner, which is usually made of copper. When the EFP is detonated, the concave copper disk is transformed into an extremely high velocity molten (i.e. very hot) copper slug/penetrator (kind of like a giant super-heated copper bullet) that penetrates via a combined mechanism of its bullet-like shape and high temperature, which allows it to burn right through vehicle armor quite literally like a hot knife through butter. Needless to say, this physical penetration mechanism makes Explosively Formed Penetrators/Projectiles very hard to defend against. Full Story Shootdown solutionArmed Forces JournalCol. Jim Slife Helicopter pilots flying in the lethal environment of Iraq are faced with a dilemma - one that may prevent them from seeing the world as it is and instead lead them to see it as they've been told it would be. Years of intensive training, institutional knowledge and safety procedures have prepared our pilots to be the best low-level pilots in the world. When combat requires that they change their tactics, however, that mind-set can become a fatal attraction. Low-level flight is demanding and exciting. In a threat environment in which radar-guided missiles and anti-aircraft artillery predominate (such as Korea, Cold War Europe, China, pre-2003 Iraq or Iran), low-level tactics would likely be the most survivable for helicopters. Without ejection seats and with a limited ability to glide, helicopter pilots are often most comfortable when near the ground. At the first indication of mechanical trouble, helicopter pilots can land without the need to find a runway and can troubleshoot from the relative safety of solid ground. Furthermore, in combat zones with unregulated airspace, it is common for airspace authorities to deconflict slow-moving helicopters from high-speed fixed-wing aircraft via altitude "blocks," with helicopters staying below a certain altitude and fixed-wing aircraft staying above that altitude, generally about 3,000 feet above the ground. When combined with the powerful, subtle narcotic of repetitive, exciting training, helicopter pilots are predisposed to fly low because - in the absence of any better reason - "that's just the way we do it." This approach may blind them to alternatives that might be less lethal. Full Story |
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Blackwater® Personal Protection Specialist CourseSecurity Managers, Law Enforcement agencies and individual security professionals have asked Blackwater to offer open courses on conducting protective operations in permissive and semi-permissive environments. Blackwater Lodge and Training Center now does just that with the first in a series of Personal Protection Specialist courses and seminars! Upcoming Course Dates: July 8 - 14, 2007 Fairfax/Loudon County, Virginia August 12-18, 2007 Moyock, NC This course reflects how we train our own personal protection teams. Course content includes classes and discussions as applied to protective operations in permissive and semi-permissive environments. This is a practical application course students attending must be prepared for long days and training exercises which may take place overnight or out of town operations. This course meets the training requirements for the Virginia DCJS PSS Personal Protection Specialist registration (032E) DCJS #88-1453 Course Cost: $2,500.00 includes: most meals, student transportation during course and student handbook. Please contact Blackwater for assistance with lodging needs. Class size is limited to 24. Please register early! To register or for more information contact: Blackwater Sales at (252) 435-1748 or e-mail David Taft at: dtaft@blackwaterusa.com | |
| FRANKS REVIEW |
Tactical Equipment EvaluationEmerson Knives: Functional & DurableAs I ponder, each week, what I'm going to review for the coming Tactical Weekly, I try to make sure that I'm not saturating the reviews with related articles. I also take a look back at what I have reviewed in the past that might need follow up. In looking back I realized that I've got a lot of information about Emerson Knives but haven't shared any of it since 2003. Having discovered that, and having a collection of Emerson knives that I tend to rely on fairly regularly, I figured it was time to revisit them. So this week we're going to take a look at Emerson's Commander, CQC7, SpecWar, and others.Full Story Can Be Viewed At: http://www.borelliconsulting.com/evals/knives/emerson07.htm Recreational Equipment ReviewSun Tracker MegaHut: Enjoying The Water A Little SlowerThanks to my relationships with folks who used to work in the military in or near the water all the time, I've had some decent exposure to boats that go fast. Indeed, I became quite disappointed with my own boat that topped out at about 45 MPH. But I've come to realize that many water recreational activities such as skiing, tubing, and swimming don't require a boat to go more than 25 to 30 MPH. That led me to thinking about comfort as it applied to enjoying the water more and more. I discovered, as funny as some may find it, some pontoon boats that provide quite a bit of comfort compared to other similar length boats, and enough speed to still enjoy skiing and tubing as well as a better platform for swimming.Full Story Can Be Viewed At: http://www.borelliconsulting.com/recevals/boating/megahut36.htm |
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SYMBOLSICON - An important and enduring symbol.The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition Copyright © 2006 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. EVERY PEACE KEEPER IS AN IMPORTANT AND ENDURING SYMBOL... AN ICON ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE DEFINITION... As long as people have what they want or what they need Peace Keepers are usually one of those things that are the farthest from their conscious minds... But when threat or danger comes, that attitude changes very quickly... Then you cannot get to the point of need fast enough to satisfy them. All of my career I have heard the comments about why am I giving attention to one who has just been caught in some infraction that they feel is minor and they feel totally justified in thinking that you should not be bothering with them when somewhere there is a DUI or a murder that needs your attention... Or go catch a drug dealer... Or how much is this parking ticket or the towing of my car going to cost me?... You really ought to have better things to do with your time! On one end of the spectrum I get it from young people who feel they receive too much attention from enforcement when they feel they are not really doing anything wrong... to those at the opposite end of the spectrum who are offended by any uniform of any authority of either law enforcement or military. Some people just do not like us because of the duty we must perform. Some people just do not like us because we have the power to alter their rights and freedom according to law when they do not like or believe in that particular law... Or they get upset because we are in the military and they do not agree with the action to which we are assigned and the duties we must carry out. Some people just do not like us for what the uniform represents. Full Story Can Be Viewed At: http://www.blackwaterusa.com/btw2007/article/061107chaplain.htm |
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