From The Editor December 11, 2006
   
 

Afghanistan Could Be Next Iraq

As Iraq has descended into chaos over the last three years, Washington policymakers have often pointed to Afghanistan as the success story in the war on terror. Even those who worry about the situation on the ground agree that the United States and its NATO allies have the right strategy in place; they just think we've devoted too few resources to the problem. In fact, Afghanistan is in danger of becoming a version of Iraq, where the central government has collapsed, disorder is rife and a Qaeda-backed insurgency controls large swathes of the country. In addition, the policies that the United States has in place are at best inadequate. We have tried to handle Afghanistan with an Afghan strategy. But it is now clear that the only way to stabilize the country is to have a Pakistan strategy.

In a forthcoming article in Foreign Affairs, Barnett Rubin, a leading Afghanistan expert, reports after four visits this year that the country is "approaching a tipping point." (For the full text of the article, click here.) The Taliban-led insurgency is gaining ground. In some areas, parallel Taliban-run governments have their own courts and administrations. The insurgents now conduct suicide bombingsunprecedented in Afghanistanand use improvised explosive devices like those in Iraq. In their southern strongholds, 35 percent of schools are closed. "As a result of the government's shaky legitimacy and weak powers," Rubin writes, "the international troop presence is coming to resemble a foreign occupationand an occupation that Afghans will ultimately reject."

Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his counterpart in Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, have openly quarreled about the cause of the Taliban's re-emergence. Musharraf blames Karzai's incompetence and weakness. Karzai argues that Pakistan has been tacitlyand often activelysupporting the Taliban along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and in Pakistan itself. Having spoken to a number of senior Western officials and independent observers in both countries, I think it's clear that, in the words of a senior U.S. administration official who wished to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the subject, "the weight of the evidence supports President Karzai."

Full Story

Gary Jackson
President
Blackwater

QUOTE OF THE WEEK
   
  "There are those, I know, who will say that the liberation of humanity, the freedom of man and mind, is nothing but a dream. They are right. It is the American dream."

Archibald MacLeish

PROFESSIONAL ARTICLES, EDITORIALS AND OPINIONS
   
 

Retaking Ramadi: All the Sheik's Men

Ramadi's chief of police gazed at his latest graduating class of officers. Three months ago they had been recruited for the force by the leaders of their desert tribesand now, the chief declared, the newly minted cops were no longer tribal members: they were his men. The cadets nodded solemnly. Their sheiks, watching from the audience, were outraged. Maybe they had finally agreed to lend some of their gunmen to the provincial government, but they never intended to give up actual power. The U.S. forces' liaison, Lt. Col. Jim Lechner, had to spend the next two hours calming them down. "I used a metaphor," he says. "I told them, 'You can't tear the house down and build a new one. But you can help fix this one'."

No part of Iraq needs fixing more desperately than insurgency-ravaged Anbar province and its capital, Ramadi. And U.S. forces are increasingly sure it can't be fixed without the help of tribes who have always been more loyal to their sheiks than to the government. Before the 2003 invasion, Saddam Hussein had to buy the sheiks' support with wealth and special privileges, and Anbar's tribes fought fiercely long after he was gone. Then Al Qaeda muscled in, claiming the Sunni-dominated region and killing sheiks who dared to challenge the jihadists' aims. After one well-known tribal leader was assassinated this summer, a group of 15 Ramadi sheiks banded together for survival's sake. They called themselves SawaArabic for "the awakening"and cut a deal with the Americans: in exchange for protection against Al Qaeda, they would bring local police ranks up to strength.

Full Story

A Report Overtaken by Reality


The Iraq Study Group, like the policy it was created to critique, was overtaken by the unexpectedly rapid crumbling of the U.S. position in Iraq since the ISG was formed in March. The deterioration was manifested in last week's misbegotten summit between President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, which made brutally clear how difficult it will be to apply even the ISG's temperate recommendations to the deteriorating reality.

Summits usually do, and generally should, resemble American political conventions -- they should not be deliberative events but should ratify decisions made earlier. The ISG's recommendations must be read in light of these facts from the week during which the recommendations were being written:

Calling Iraq's prime minister "the right guy" for Iraq, Bush met him in Jordan, presumably because Iraq is too dangerous a venue for discussing how to, in Bush's words, "complete" the job. The job is to stabilize Iraq, which cannot be done without breaking the Mahdi Army, which cannot be done without bringing down Maliki, who is beholden to Moqtada al-Sadr, the cleric who more or less controls the Mahdi Army, which probably is larger and more capable than Iraq's army.

Full Story

It's Up To Bush

The Baker group and many of Bush's advisors have failed the president. It's up to the commander in chief now.


It's all up to the president now. The James Baker public relations blitz will of course continue, and the members of Baker's Iraq Study Group will go to book signings and be regulars on morning TV, and maybe even go on a nationwide tour like the Rolling Stones. Alan Simpson will continue to underline the gravity and earnestness of the group's endeavors by insisting that anyone who disagrees with him (like, say, John McCain and Joe Lieberman) has "gas" and "B.O."--subjects about which, unlike the military situation in Iraq, he probably has real knowledge and expertise.

But as the James Baker-Alan Simpson Steel Wheels tour and vaudeville act drags on and ultimately passes into well-deserved oblivion, the problems that they failed seriously to address will remain. And responsible people in Iraq, in the Pentagon, and in the White House will have to decide, very soon, how to achieve the president's goal of creating a stable, secure, and democratic Iraq. The president's military and political advisers are reviewing options now. Presumably, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is taking a fresh look at the situation in Iraq and is open to any strategy that has a chance of succeeding.

Full Story

BREAKING NEWS FOR THE PROFESSIONAL
   
 

Training Iraqis May Pose Risks For U.S.

The newest program for training Iraqi security forces, embedding 11- to 15-member U.S. transition teams in Iraqi battalions, represents a "high-risk assignment" for the American officers and men involved, according to top military training officials. The concept is considered so dangerous that a group of potential replacements stand ready at Fort Riley, the U.S. Army base directing the program, for immediate shipment to Iraq if members of a deployed team are killed or wounded, Maj. Gen. Carter F. Ham, who runs the training program, told House members last week. While the U.S. training of Iraqis is considered key in determining the future of the American presence in Iraq, it remains a work in progress three years after it began, according to present and former senior U.S. Army and Marine officers involved in the process.

Full Story

'Armoured fist' smashes into Basra at dawn, capturing five terrorist leaders

British troops carried out a dramatic three-pronged attack on insurgents in Basra yesterday in the biggest strike operation since the invasion of Iraq. Five alleged top-level terrorists were arrested, and a number of bombs just 48 hours away from being planted were found in the dawn swoop. In a set-piece assault, more than 1,000 soldiers in tanks, armoured vehicles and boats carried out simultaneous raids into one of the toughest areas of Basra at 3am.

Full Story

Reserve troops facing job woes

The number of reservists and National Guard members who say they have been reassigned, lost benefits or been fired from civilian jobs after returning from duty has increased by more than 70% over the past six years. The sharp spike in complaints brought to the U.S. Labor Department reflects the extensive use of part-time soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, the largest call up of reserves since the 1950-53 Korean War. About 500,000 of the 850,000 reservists and National Guard members eligible for duty have been mobilized since late 2001, said Maj. Rob Palmer, spokesman for a Pentagon office that tries to resolve job disputes.

Full Story

What would happen if the U.S. left Iraq?

With Americans leaning consistently in favor of disengagement from Iraq, President Bush has warned that a precipitate withdrawal would create a terrorism superstate in the Middle East that is rich with oil cash and determined to topple moderate governments around it. But to many U.S. lawmakers, regional experts and Middle East leaders, the chief risk is not a more menacing version of Taliban-dominated Afghanistan, but a Lebanese-style civil war that could result in the deaths of thousands more Iraqis and expand the conflict by drawing in neighboring states. The sharply differing views color the growing debate over the consequences of withdrawal as incoming Democratic congressional leaders demand a troop drawdown and Bush opens the door to new approaches. A majority of Americans favor at least a partial withdrawal, but the administration also is considering a temporary troop increase as part of an effort to step up training of Iraqi forces.

Full Story

What the US has learned (so far) in Iraq

Listing things done wrong in Iraq, one veteran US policymaker put it bluntly: Pentagon leaders ignored analyses that indicated they needed more troops to keep order. The military was slow to develop a clear plan to counter the insurgency. For too long, US generals kept assuming that the day when Iraqi troops would be able to stand on their own was just around the corner. Furthermore, neither the Americans nor the Iraqis moved fast enough to counter the rising influence of the radical Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia. Is this critic a Democratic lawmaker, perhaps? A senior fellow from a liberal think-tank? No, he's Paul Bremer, President Bush's choice to head the Coalition Provisional Authority, who makes these points and more in an updated version of his book about his year in Iraq.

Full Story
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SECURITY FOR THE PROFESSIONAL
   
 

Afghanistan war nears 'tipping point'

The conflict in Afghanistan has entered a dangerous phase, and the next three to six months could prove crucial in determining whether the United States and its NATO partners can suppress a revitalized enemy or will be dragged into another drawn-out and costly fight with an Islamic insurgency, according to senior military and security officials and diplomats. "I think we are approaching a tipping point, perhaps early in the new year," said a Western diplomat in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the situation publicly. Popular support for the central government is faltering, and Western military allies are deeply divided over how best to combat the insurgency.

Full Story

Extra firepower called for to rescue Nato from quagmire

News that the Iraq study group recommends a fresh injection of US combat troops for Afghanistan will come as sweet relief to embattled Nato commanders. Once the White House's proudest foreign policy success, Afghanistan is slowly starting to resemble the sort of quagmire the US is struggling to escape in Iraq. This year's dramatic Taliban resurgence has seen record numbers of suicide attacks and roadside bombs, a booming drugs trade and almost 4,000 deaths including 190 foreign soldiers.

Full Story

Ramadi Marines on the front line against Al-Qaeda in Iraq

From the vantage point of the 17th Street security station, the grim vista of downtown Ramadi stretched out before Marine Corporal Anthony Bell in an apocalyptic expanse of bullet-riddled buildings. "You have to watch for everything," said Bell of Alpha company, who at 21 is on his second tour in Iraq. "We already had different types of bombs, sniper attacks and a lot of small arms fire." As he described his life in the shattered downtown of this urban battleground between US forces and Al-Qaeda in Iraq's restive western Al-Anbar province, a fusillade of shots rings out, followed by an explosion.

Full Story

Rumsfeld bids farewell to GIs in Iraq

Outgoing Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld paid a surprise visit to Iraq over the weekend and said American forces should not quit the war until the enemy is defeated. Just days after a U.S. bipartisan commission called the situation here "grave and deteriorating" and called for a major shift in U.S. government policy, Rumsfeld showed no sign on Saturday of backing down from his long-standing position that insurgent groups such as al-Qaida in Iraq must be crushed. "We feel great urgency to protect the American people from another 9/11 or a 9/11 times two or three. At the same time, we need to have the patience to see this task through to success. The consequences of failure are unacceptable," Rumsfeld told more than 1,200 soldiers and Marines at Al-Asad, a sprawling air base in Anbar province, the large area of western Iraq that is an insurgent stronghold. "The enemy must be defeated."

Full Story

World's youth believe 'war on terror' counterproductive

Young people overwhelmingly believe the US-led "war on terror" is not making the world safer, according to a poll conducted in major cities across the globe. The survey of youngsters aged 15 - 17, which was conducted for the BBC in New York, Nairobi, Cairo, Lagos, Rio de Janeiro, Baghdad, Delhi, Jakarta, Moscow and London, found that only 14% of respondents thought US policy in Iraq and Afghanistan was making the world a safer place, while 71% said it was not. The remaining 15% did not know or declined to answer. Negative views of the "war on terror" were strongest in Baghdad (98%) and Rio (92%). Asked if they "would consider taking action that could result in innocent people dying if they felt very strongly about a cause", 17% said they would. The figure was highest in Baghdad (34%), followed by Jakarta (31%) and London (25%).

Full Story
TRAINING FOR THE PROFESSIONAL
 

Mirror Image Training: Training to Combat Terrorism


Mirror Image is a tactical and strategic training course developed and owned by the Terrorism Research Center. TRC instructors have trained hundreds of military personnel that are subsequently deployed to active combat operations, as well as large numbers of first responders, law enforcement, and security professionals. Mirror Image is an intensive one-week classroom and field-training program, designed to realistically simulate terrorist recruiting, training techniques, and operational tactics. During the course, participants will receive insight into the mindset and rationale of the terrorist through hands-on experience with the methods and means terrorist employ, education about terrorist ideologies and the cultural dimensions that influence their decision making process. Military, law enforcement, intelligence, and security professionals will, in turn, be able to see themselves as the terrorists see them and understand the weaknesses in their own environment that the terrorists will seek to exploit, and which all too often they miss. Armed with these insights participants will leave the course better able to anticipate, prevent and respond to multiple terrorist threats.

January 14-19, 2007: Blackwater Training Center, Moyock, NC

A detailed brochure may be downloaded at: www.terrorism.com

Questions on TRC training, please contact Betty O'Hearns-Hines, Training Coordinator for the Terrorism Research Center.
Email: betty@terrorism.com
Phone: (727)360-4302 voice or (727)409-1754

FRANKS REVIEW
   
 

Service Equipment Review

Randall 1911 Stainless Steel .45ACP Pistol

Across the span of the past century, give or take a couple of years, the Colt Government Model 1911 .45ACP pistol may well be the most copied pistol design to date. At present you can get some version of the legendary pistol from Colt, Smith & Wesson, SigArms, Springfield Armory, Auto Ordnance, and more. As far as I know, Beretta and Glock don't make 1911 variations. Glock never will because of the .45GAP cartridge and Beretta has shown little inclination to develop / design weapons in the .45ACP cartridge. They have in the past, but not with what appears to be great motivation. This week's review, though, is going to be about a little known all stainless steel pistol made by Randall - one of the first stainless steel .45s made.

Full Story Can Be Viewed At: http://www.borelliconsulting.com/evals/guns/randallss45.htm


Recreational Equipment Review

TACPATT Apparel

As a result of a professional partnership between Brigade Quartermaster and 5.11 Tactical, the TACPATT uniform line was created. Specifically designed for urban - that's NOT country or rural - but urban use, the camouflage is everything you'd expect from two leaders in today's military and law enforcement industry. The side benefit - and good news for those who enjoy the outdoors - is that few camo patterns have only one application. In this case, the TACPATT pattern is a mix of black, gray and two shades of green; but if you don't look carefully you might mistake if for simply three shades of gray and add in black. Since our woods and fields have plenty of black and gray spaces during the early morning and dusk hours, when game is either up and moving about or getting ready to bed down, the TACPATT pattern may well prove to be a very effective camouflage for hunting. Obviously, because of the design of the pants and shirts themselves, the apparel is valuable for outdoor use.

Full Story Can Be Viewed At: http://www.borelliconsulting.com/recevals/apparel/511tacpatt.htm

 

CHAPLAINS CORNER
   
 

FOR THOSE WHO DO THE GOING...
AND FOR THOSE WHO DO THE WAITING



For as long as there has been man upon the earth there has been the combination of those who go away and those who wait for their return.

Those who go, go out for conquest, exploration, work, food... provisions... and sometimes to meet an enemy or find an enemy that has struck and ran away... some enemy that has done insufferable damage to friend or family, without provocation, sometimes involving stealing and human destruction... some enemy that we know is there among us that will do damage if not found and hindered from the ability to do or continue that damage again.

In Afghanistan, Iraq and Israel today the enemy hits with a weapon that civilized man cannot tolerate or understand... The radical Islamics use persons rigged as bombs. They move in among unsuspecting civilians and detonate the explosives killing themselves and as many unsuspecting civilians as possible... They will kill police and military also if they can manage it. I notice that it is always some brainwashed individual that does the carrying of the explosives and killing of themselves and others... It is never the leaders.
The leaders are always trying to stay hidden in some reasonably safe location... Otherwise we would have no trouble finding the Osama Bin Ladens of this world. Their way is to hide and manipulate others to do their dirty work of destruction. They did that to us on 911... using hostages and airliners for the bombs.


Full Story Can Be Viewed At:
../../btw2006/article/121106chaplain.htm

 

BUMPER STICKER
   
 

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CONTACT INFORMATION
   
 

The Blackwater Tactical Weekly is a free weekly e-publication.

The BTW provides readers valuable information from diverse sources regarding tactical and strategic security issues.

Editor-in-Chief – Gary Jackson (btw@blackwaterusa.com)
Managing Editor – Brent Heminger (btw@blackwaterusa.com)
IT Manager– J Harrison (jharrison@blackwaterusa.com)
Frank’s Review – Frank Borelli (frank@borelliconsulting.com)
Chaplain’s Corner - Chaplain D. R. Staton(chpln1@verizon.net)
Advertising – David Niccolini (niccolini@terrorism.com)

Questions regarding Security Consulting or Training at Blackwater (252) 435-2488

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1st Monday of Month First Responder
2nd Monday of Month Military
3rd Monday of Month Homeland Security
4th Monday of Month Corporate Security
5th Monday of Month (if applicable) Editor’s Choice

The weekly theme may change at the discretion of the Editor based on current events.

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